Gulf states weigh military options to counter Iran's attacks

Iran’s biggest Gulf Arab neighbors are considering joining the U.S.-Israeli war against Tehran, and could be pushed to if Tehran attacks their critical infrastructure, according to several people with knowledge of the situation.

The Gulf’s most powerful states, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, in particular, are losing patience with Iranian strikes that have already hit ports, energy facilities and airports, said these people, who requested anonymity in order to speak freely. But they would only join the war if the Islamic Republic makes good on its threats to attack vital Gulf power and water infrastructure — a high threshold, the people added.

Most Gulf states are headed in that direction with some exceptions such as Oman, which wants to maintain its role as mediator, said the people. Still, they are wary of joining the war given Iran could escalate its attacks on them. They could also end up in a situation where U.S. President Donald Trump cuts a deal with Tehran, and they’re left to deal with a wounded, angry regime, added a European diplomat in the region.

Many governments also fear that could happen even if they don’t join the war, said the people.

The war has upended Iran’s relations with its Sunni Arab neighbors. Saudi Arabia and the UAE spent most of the past five years attempting to stabilize ties with the Islamic Republic, in large part to prevent the kind of conflict now raging. Gulf states have long seen Iran’s Shiite theocratic regime as trying to extend its ideology and influence to the rest of the region.

In the past two days Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE all intercepted drones and missiles fired by Iran. Abu Dhabi condemned what it called an “unprovoked terrorist attack” by Iran on Bahrain on Tuesday that killed a Moroccan contractor with the UAE’s armed forces. Several Emirati and Bahraini soldiers were injured in the missile attack.

Iran says Gulf states are legitimate targets because the U.S. uses their airspace and territories to attack it — a claim they all reject.

Spokespeople for the foreign ministries of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

Majed Al-Ansari, spokesperson for Qatar’s foreign ministry, told a press briefing on Tuesday that Gulf states will have to find ways of coexisting with Iran. The Islamic Republic, a country of 90 million people, sits only just across the Persian Gulf from them. “It’s up to the Iranians post this war to decide how they will rebuild the trust,” Al-Ansari said.

If Trump follows through on threats to seize Kharg Island — through which 90% of Iranian crude is exported — that would prompt an even bigger backlash from Tehran across the region, according to a senior Iranian official close to the security apparatus. They requested anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

The U.S. troops needed for the mission would likely be sent from the UAE, which hosts the Al Dhafra Air Base, the Iranian official said, highlighting Tehran’s thinking on such a move. If the Emiratis allowed it, Iran would respond with a severe attack on the wealthy Gulf state, the official said.

If the U.S. takes over the island, Iran won’t hesitate to bomb it, even if it means huge economic losses for the regime, and will place mines in the strait and the Persian Gulf itself, the official added. There was no immediate response to a request for comment to the Iranian government via the country’s embassy in the U.K.

“This is not our war, but Iran is making it ours,” said Mohammed Baharoon, director of B’huth, the Dubai Public Policy Research Center.

If Iran remains on the current trajectory of targeting Gulf states and blocking the Strait of Hormuz, it may force regional countries to assemble a coalition to confront Tehran’s “state terror,” he said. He added it could be akin to the one that came together to fight Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

Iran has begun charging transit fees on some commercial vessels passing through the strait, another sign of Tehran’s control over the world’s most important maritime energy channel.

Missiles and drones

Since the start of the war, Iran has fired almost 5,000 missiles and drones at Gulf states. It’s targeted oil and gas infrastructure, U.S. bases, residential neighborhoods, diplomatic areas and tourist sites, with the UAE bearing the brunt of this aggression. At least 20 people have been killed in Arab Gulf nations.

On Monday, Trump vowed to target Iran’s power plants if it did not reopen Hormuz — a threat he subsequently paused for five days to give diplomacy a chance. Iran quickly named power and water desalination plants in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE that it would strike in retaliation.

On Friday the UAE said it had “dismantled a terrorist network funded by Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iran, and arrested its members.” That same week, Kuwait announced that it had also uncovered Hezbollah-linked cells that were planning to carry out acts of sabotage and a “terror plot to target vital facilities in the country.” Hezbollah, a militant group supported by Iran, denied any involvement.

All this is leading Gulf states to the realization that they must now do more collectively and with their American and European allies, said a senior Gulf official.

The official said members of the Gulf Cooperation Council have significantly stepped up coordination on sharing intelligence and information on potential plots by Iran and its proxies. The aims are to protect vital infrastructure, ensure collective food security and handle emergency scenarios associated with any fallout from attacks on nuclear sites and oil facilities.

While each country has been mobilizing its military capabilities to defend itself, there are discussions on what can be done together to confront Iran with the help of international allies, the same official and another one said.

Military action against Iran was one option on the table last week during a meeting of foreign ministers in the Saudi capital Riyadh, according to people with knowledge of deliberations.

All Gulf states attended except Oman, and it included regional powers such as Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey. Those three countries have taken the lead on diplomacy with Iran in the past two weeks as Gulf countries step back.

“I think it’s important for the Iranians to understand that the kingdom, but also its partners who have been attacked and beyond, have very significant capacities and capabilities that they could bring to bear should they choose to do so,” said Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan during a press conference after the meeting. “The patience that is being exhibited is not unlimited.”

While Saudi Arabia still favors diplomacy and has not openly backed regime change in Iran, it’s ready to take military action if Tehran strikes its power and water infrastructure, according to two people familiar with Riyadh’s thinking.

Among all Gulf states, the UAE is the one most strongly signaling that some sort of collective military action against Iran may be inevitable.

“We will never be blackmailed by terrorists,” said the country’s foreign minister, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, on X on Sunday.

The same day, Anwar Gargash, a senior diplomatic adviser to the UAE’s President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, said any ceasefire must curb Iran’s “nuclear threat, missiles, drones, and the bullying of the straits.”

“It is inconceivable that this aggression should turn into a permanent state of threat,” he said.

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—With assistance from Julius Domoney and Golnar Motevalli.